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Harnessing Artificial Intelligence | Patient Compliance and Adherence

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence | Patient Compliance and Adherence

Posted | Updated by Insights team:
Dr. Evangelo Damigos; PhD | Head of Digital Futures Research Desk
  • AI
  • Sustainable Growth and Tech Trends


Publication | Update: Sep 2020
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Compliance is essential to ensure that medicines work properly and to track the safety and efficacy profiles of a medication during clinical trials and for once a medication reaches the marketplace.

Non-compliance causes thousands of medication-related hospital admissions every year, issues with drug resistance, difficulties in clinical trial data collection, wasted medicine and high medical costs. It is a widespread problem that particularly effects medications for chronic illnesses. 

Historically, patient self-reporting or pill counts have been used as compliance measures, but these measures are unreliable, and now healthcare providers are turning to alternative solutions.

This article looks at technology in the area of patient compliance, an area where AI is having a huge impact on the life sciences industry. According to CMS research, technologies facilitating patient compliance raise a host of intellectual property considerations. In the context of patient compliance platforms, inventions will most likely exist around the process of receiving personal patient data, learning from the data using machine learning, and then using the trained machine learning system to predict the likelihood a patient will not take their medication at the correct time. Patent claims may be directed to ‘a computer-implemented method for providing a health assistant system’ or ‘a system for medication adherence management’.

According to Advanced RX research, failure to comply with treatments and follow up visits can have detrimental results not only for patients but for the U.S. economy as well. In fact, noncompliant patients make up for 10 to 25 percent of nursing home and hospital admissions each year, which costs the health care system of the U.S. over $ 100 billion annually. According to studies, in the U.S. estimated costs of medication, noncompliance is 0 to 9 billion per year and these figures are expected to grow in the future.

This doesn’t include indirect costs of billion from missed productivity in the workplace and lost patient earnings. Not to mention the complications that arise when doctors’ orders are not followed, which has already resulted in an estimated 125,000 deaths each year among patients with treatable conditions.

According to the health system efficiency and quality vice president of The Commonwealth Fund in New York, Anne-Marie Audet, the problem in a new era of patient care, lies in lack of patient motivation. Audet also stated, “Our system is so much geared toward acute care, but we’re moving toward investing in primary care and preventive care which means people will have to be even more engaged in their health. Generally, I think we’ve failed [as an industry] to really establish the connection between what happens in the small amount of time that people spend in the health care system and in the 99 percent of the time they spend outside of it.” She also mentioned that you could learn to activate patients; however, it is an acquired skill.

The key to reducing health care costs and improving quality care is encouraging patients to comply with medication and treatment regimes recommended.

Researchers are Developing Solutions for Noncompliance

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reports that one of the main contributing factors to noncompliance with medication is that patients don’t understand the medical recommendations. According to studies, this risk of non-adherence due to patients not receiving proper instructions by the provider of how to follow medication regimes is substantially high.

One asthma study pointed out the importance of properly instructing patients on how taking their medications affect their chronic conditions. The study found that 38 percent of the patients involved in the study adhered to the regiment and the other 62 percent were under the impression they were to take their medication as needed.

Additional studies found that communication between doctors and patients was ineffective, as physicians were not explaining the benefits the prescribed medication have on their condition, which led to compliance issues.

In considering noncompliance predictive factors, researchers are working on developing new tools and techniques to assist physicians in tailoring treatment plans to each individual patient that will provide them with the motivation they need to collaborate in their own care.

Why people fail to comply with treatment and medication as well as factors that contribute to patient compliance improvement, have been studied globally across various medical conditions from hypertension to chronic diseases. The findings of such studies have concluded the following three factors to have the best effects on patient compliance with treatments and medications.

• Understanding of medical directions
• Involvement in the Process
• Compliance reminders

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Involvement in the Process

Many non-compliant patients feel they don’t have the proper support system to help them keep track of their daily medication usage or feel they are not involved in their own care process.

Research shows that patients of physicians who encourage them to be more involved actively in their diagnosis and treatment plan results in patient satisfaction and adherence to treatment regiments.

One study indicated that when patients view their physician as trustworthy, they are more apt to comply with following their recommendations.

Compliance reminders

Compliance reminders can be set to help patients with chronic conditions know when it’s time to take their medications. This has shown to increase compliance substantially, leading to better care outcomes.

A Chicago Medicine, University pilot program sent text messages to patients with diabetes as medication reminders, which successfully improved self-care and enhanced patient support. The program also showed a significant reduction in health care costs compared to what they were prior to the test. For each participant, the cost of care reduced by $ 812, which saved ,332 in the emergency department, inpatient, and outpatient visits, offset by a 0 raise in drug costs.

In addition, 73 percent of test participants reported being satisfied with the program, while 88 percent claimed that interaction with health professionals play a big role in their engagement.

Moreover, the “Journal of the American Medical Association” (JAMA) published the findings of another clinical trial that evaluated using mobile text messaging to promote treatment adherence in adults treated for chronic diseases. The report stated that using the mobile phone text messaging system, almost doubled patient compliance rates as the adherence rate went from 50 percent to 67.7 percent, a 17.8 percent increase.

Who are the current players?

A number of new companies are developing AI-driven technologies to facilitate patient compliance. Companies are developing platforms that use software algorithms on smartphones to visually and automatically confirm patient identity, medication and ingestion, send ingestion/dose reminders, and adapt based on the unique patient behavioural profile. Some platforms have already been shown to increase adherence by over 50%.

As a result, more patients benefit from the full efficacy of their medication. Clinicians will have access to real-time data and more complete and accurate data collection from their patients. The knock-on effect of this should be faster and more successful clinical trials, safer medication on the marketplace, and less medical wastage.

Some of the bigger companies in the market at the moment who are providing these technologies include:

  • AiCure: AI-based patient monitoring platform, for facial recognition to confirm that patients have ingested their medicine. Partners include AbbVie and NeuroBo.
  • Brite Health: Adaptive personalised patient engagement platform, which personalises engagement strategies based on the unique behavioural profile of the user.
  • Medisafe: Personalised medication management platform. Partners include Boehringer Ingelheim and Apple Health Records.
  • Proteus Digital Health: develop smart-pills (ingestible digital sensors) with built-in machine learning capabilities that track medication adherence. Partners include Novartis and Otsuka.

It is likely that hospitals and the NHS will be key players in development and use of machine learning to facilitate patient compliance. An example is the machine learning system, developed by University College London Hospital, that was trained to predict the likelihood that individual patients will arrive on time for their MRI scan appointment and was found to be very accurate.

 

The AllazoEngine | Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to Change Patient Behavior

The AllazoEngine™ combines behavioral sciences and machine learning to predict which patients are at-risk for specific clinical outcomes like medication non-adherence.

DATA AGGREGATE

The AllazoEngine first incorporates claims data, patient demographics, coverage eligibility, and past intervention data. The system is able to leverage customer data as well as data from 3rd parties. Once the data is collected, the AllazoEngine then normalizes the data to enable the machine learning processes.

CALCULATE

The AllazoEngine™ then runs proprietary algorithms to enrich the data by calculating hundreds of additional variables, such as the level of synchronization across multiple medications and complexity of dosing regimen – factors that have been proven to be predictive of medication adherence behaviors.

PREDICT

The machine learning models used in the AllazoEngine™ have been trained across millions of patients and hundreds of millions of data points to accurately and reliably correlate thousands of data variables with levels of adherence. Collectively these models provide a robust prediction for each individual patient’s risk of being non-adherent in the future. The AllazoEngineTM also predicts each patient’s likelihood of being influenced by various outreach channels and messages.

PRIORITIZE

Based on these predictions, AllazoHealth prioritizes the patients who are both at risk of becoming non-adherent and whose behaviors can be changed through proactive interventions. This cuts out unnecessary and often burdensome patient outreach to streamline your intervention strategy. Furthermore, interventions are much more successful when intervening proactively with at-risk patients instead of waiting until patients become non-adherent.

OPTIMIZE

While knowing who to intervene with is important, knowing how and when to intervene is just as critical. The AllazoEngine™ predicts the impact of multiple intervention channels and messages to select the most ideal combination for each individual patient.

LEARN

With time, the AllazoEngine™ becomes more in-tune with and nuanced to the specific population of each client. In other words, as more interventions are delivered and patient behaviors analyzed, it becomes even better at delivering the right intervention, to the right patient, at the right time.

Summary

With patient noncompliance being a problem in the U.S. costing billions of dollars annually and expected to cost even more in the future, not to mention the many preventable deaths that already occurred, it is important to find out what’s causing this problem and then address it with a proper solution.

Researchers searching for answers found the problem lies in the lack of patients understanding how their medication benefits their condition or merely forget to take their medication as prescribed. Physicians providing patients with complete instructions on medication usage and health care can help patients to become more involved in their own treatment, while reminder programs can be set to remind patients when it’s time to take their medication.

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Forecast methodology

The future outlook “forecast” is based on a set of statistical methods such as regression analysis, industry specific drivers as well as analyst evaluations, as well as analysis of the trends that influence economic outcomes and business decision making.
The Global Economic Model is covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. We aim update our market forecast to include the latest market developments and trends.

Forecasts, Data modelling and indicator normalisation

Review of independent forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables by the following organizations provide a holistic overview of the range of alternative opinions:

  • Cambridge Econometrics (CE)

  • The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)

  • Experian Economics (EE)

  • Oxford Economics (OE)

As a result, the reported forecasts derive from different forecasters and may not represent the view of any one forecaster over the whole of the forecast period. These projections provide an indication of what is, in our view most likely to happen, not what it will definitely happen.

Short- and medium-term forecasts are based on a “demand-side” forecasting framework, under the assumption that supply adjusts to meet demand either directly through changes in output or through the depletion of inventories.
Long-term projections rely on a supply-side framework, in which output is determined by the availability of labour and capital equipment and the growth in productivity.
Long-term growth prospects, are impacted by factors including the workforce capabilities, the openness of the economy to trade, the legal framework, fiscal policy, the degree of government regulation.

Direct contribution to GDP
The method for calculating the direct contribution of an industry to GDP, is to measure its ‘gross value added’ (GVA); that is, to calculate the difference between the industry’s total pre­tax revenue and its total bought­in costs (costs excluding wages and salaries).

Forecasts of GDP growth: GDP = CN+IN+GS+NEX

GDP growth estimates take into account:

  • Consumption, expressed as a function of income, wealth, prices and interest rates;

  • Investment as a function of the return on capital and changes in capacity utilization; Government spending as a function of intervention initiatives and state of the economy;

  • Net exports as a function of global economic conditions.

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Market Quantification
All relevant markets are quantified utilizing revenue figures for the forecast period. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) within each segment is used to measure growth and to extrapolate data when figures are not publicly available.

Revenues

Our market segments reflect major categories and subcategories of the global market, followed by an analysis of statistical data covering national spending and international trade relations and patterns. Market values reflect revenues paid by the final customer / end user to vendors and service providers either directly or through distribution channels, excluding VAT. Local currencies are converted to USD using the yearly average exchange rates of local currencies to the USD for the respective year as provided by the IMF World Economic Outlook Database.

Industry Life Cycle Market Phase

Market phase is determined using factors in the Industry Life Cycle model. The adapted market phase definitions are as follows:

  • Nascent: New market need not yet determined; growth begins increasing toward end of cycle

  • Growth: Growth trajectory picks up; high growth rates

  • Mature: Typically fewer firms than growth phase, as dominant solutions continue to capture the majority of market share and market consolidation occurs, displaying lower growth rates that are typically on par with the general economy

  • Decline: Further market consolidation, rapidly declining growth rates

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The Global Economic Model
The Global Economic Model brings together macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts for quantifying the key relationships.

The model is a hybrid statistical model that uses macroeconomic variables and inter-industry linkages to forecast sectoral output. The model is used to forecast not just output, but prices, wages, employment and investment. The principal variables driving the industry model are the components of final demand, which directly or indirectly determine the demand facing each industry. However, other macroeconomic assumptions — in particular exchange rates, as well as world commodity prices — also enter into the equation, as well as other industry specific factors that have been or are expected to impact.

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Forecasts of GDP growth per capita based on these factors can then be combined with demographic projections to give forecasts for overall GDP growth.
Wherever possible, publicly available data from official sources are used for the latest available year. Qualitative indicators are normalised (on the basis of: Normalised x = (x - Min(x)) / (Max(x) - Min(x)) where Min(x) and Max(x) are, the lowest and highest values for any given indicator respectively) and then aggregated across categories to enable an overall comparison. The normalised value is then transformed into a positive number on a scale of 0 to 100. The weighting assigned to each indicator can be changed to reflect different assumptions about their relative importance.

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The principal explanatory variable in each industry’s output equation is the Total Demand variable, encompassing exogenous macroeconomic assumptions, consumer spending and investment, and intermediate demand for goods and services by sectors of the economy for use as inputs in the production of their own goods and services.

Elasticities
Elasticity measures the response of one economic variable to a change in another economic variable, whether the good or service is demanded as an input into a final product or whether it is the final product, and provides insight into the proportional impact of different economic actions and policy decisions.
Demand elasticities measure the change in the quantity demanded of a particular good or service as a result of changes to other economic variables, such as its own price, the price of competing or complementary goods and services, income levels, taxes.
Demand elasticities can be influenced by several factors. Each of these factors, along with the specific characteristics of the product, will interact to determine its overall responsiveness of demand to changes in prices and incomes.
The individual characteristics of a good or service will have an impact, but there are also a number of general factors that will typically affect the sensitivity of demand, such as the availability of substitutes, whereby the elasticity is typically higher the greater the number of available substitutes, as consumers can easily switch between different products.
The degree of necessity. Luxury products and habit forming ones, typically have a higher elasticity.
Proportion of the budget consumed by the item. Products that consume a large portion of the consumer’s budget tend to have greater elasticity.
Elasticities tend to be greater over the long run because consumers have more time to adjust their behaviour.
Finally, if the product or service is an input into a final product then the price elasticity will depend on the price elasticity of the final product, its cost share in the production costs, and the availability of substitutes for that good or service.

Prices
Prices are also forecast using an input-output framework. Input costs have two components; labour costs are driven by wages, while intermediate costs are computed as an input-output weighted aggregate of input sectors’ prices. Employment is a function of output and real sectoral wages, that are forecast as a function of whole economy growth in wages. Investment is forecast as a function of output and aggregate level business investment.

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