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Nearly half of Europeans unhappy with EU's COVID measures, poll finds

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Nearly half of Europeans unhappy with EU's COVID measures, poll finds

Posted | Updated by Insights team:

Publication | Update:

May 2021
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Nearly half of European respondents are unsatisfied with the EU's measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a new survey has revealed.

It found 49% were unhappy with measures taken by the bloc, while 43% were satisfied and 8% undecided.

The highest proportion of dissatisfaction was found in Greece, Luxembourg and Belgium, the Eurobarometer poll found.

Satisfaction down since summer

The findings, which stems from a survey conducted between 12 February and 11 March across the 27 EU countries and 12 other countries outside the EU, including the UK, showed dissatisfaction with the EU over coronavirus was up by five percentage points since last summer.

It also compares to 43% of people who said they were satisfied with the EU's COVID-19 measures - down two percentage points since the summer - and 8% who said they "don't know" how they feel about the EU's coronavirus response, down three percentage points.

Satisfaction with EU COVID-19 measures among Europeans (Eurobarometer)

Within the EU, 13 member states saw a majority of residents express satisfaction with the bloc's handling of the pandemic, down from 19 member states in the summer.

The highest proportions of satisfaction were found in Denmark (68%), Lithuania (67%) and Portugal (66%).

Meanwhile, 12 member states had a majority of respondents express dissatisfaction, with Greece leading the way at 68%, followed by Luxembourg (63%) and Belgium (61%).

In Spain and the Netherlands, public opinion was evenly divided, with 44% satisfied and 44% not satisfied in the former country and latter seeing the same, but at 43%.

Levels of satisfaction with EU response by country (Eurobarometer)

Europeans more disappointed with own governments

While many Europeans expressed dissatisfaction with the EU's coronavirus response, even more people said they were "not satisfied" with the measures taken by their own national governments.

A clear majority of 56% said they were not impressed with the measures being undertaken by their own governments, representing a rise of 19 percentage points since the summer.

Petros Giannakouris/Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Primary school teachers protest for more safety measures in schools in Athens, Friday, 15 January, 2021. Greece led the way in dissatisfaction with the EU's COVID-19 response.Petros Giannakouris/Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Meanwhile, 43% said they were satisfied, down the same number of percentage points, while just 1% said they did not know how they felt.

"Satisfaction has deteriorated spectacularly since summer 2020, when the situation was the opposite, with 62% 'satisfied' vs. 37% 'not satisfied'," researchers behind the Eurobarometer wrote in a report on the study's findings.

Residents of Latvia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia appeared to be the least impressed with their governments' coronavirus response at 79%, 76% and 75% respectively.

Meanwhile, satisfaction appeared highest in Denmark, Luxembourg and in the Netherlands at 79%, 73% and 71% respectively.

Trust in the EU to 'make right decisions' in future still high

While satisfaction with the measures implemented by the EU and by individual governments has decreased since the summer, it appears that general trust in the EU is stronger than it has been in more than a decade.

Close to half of Europeans said they trust the European Union (49%) in the survey, marking a sharp 6-point increase since the summer.

The findings also represent the highest level of trust registered since spring 2008, researchers said.

At the same time, however, trust in national governments was at 36%, four percentage points down since the summer.

Meanwhile, trust in the EU's ability to make the "right decisions in the future" when it comes to the pandemic response, was also relatively high.

"When thinking about EU’s response to the pandemic, close to six in ten Europeans trust the EU to make the right decisions in the future," researchers said, with 59% of Europeans saying they trust the bloc to do the right thing in the future, down by 3 percentage points since the summer.

Less than four in ten said they did not trust the EU to make the right choices, with 39% making this determination, up by three percentage points.

Meanwhile, 2% said they did not know how they felt on the matter, the same proportion that expressed the sentiment in the summer.

Trust in EU to do right in the future on pandemic (Eurobarometer)

"At least half of the population trust the EU to take the right decisions in the future in 24 countries, and more than three quarters do so in Portugal (89%), Malta (79%) and Hungary (77%)," researchers found.

"At the other end of the scale, majorities do not trust the EU to take the right decisions in the future in Greece (55%), Czechia (53%) and Austria (50%)," they said.

Meanwhile, compared with the summer, trust in the EU to make the right decision in the future deteriorated in 17 countries, with Germany leading the way at 50%, down 11 percentage points, followed by Belgium at 55%, also down 11 percentage points and Latvia at 61`%, down 10 percentage points.

Health and economy top concerns

Much of the concern Europeans have at the moment circulates around health and the economy, the Eurobarometer survey found.

Close to four in ten EU citizens said they see health as the most important issue facing the bloc right now, with the issue taking first place ahead of economic concerns.

Of those surveyed, 38% said they believed health was the most important issue, representing a surge of 16 percentage points since the summer.

Meanwhile, 35% said they see the economy as the primary concern, with the proportion remaining unchanged from summer 2020.

Christophe Ena/Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
A man receives Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination site in Paris, Saturday, 6 March, 2021. For many, health is a top concern amid the coronavirus pandemic.Christophe Ena/Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

The state of member states’ public finances fell into third place, with 21% of mentions, down two percentage points, while the environment and climate change continue to take a back seat at 20%, which has not changed since the summertime.

While "health leads the ranking of main concerns at [the] EU level," researchers noted, they said that the "economic situation is the only issue that appears in the top three concerns in all EU member states.

So, while health may be the primary concern as the coronavirus pandemic plays out, the economy is certainly on Europeans' minds.

In fact, more than six in ten Europeans said they believe their country's economy will only recover from the impact of the pandemic in 2023 or later, at 61%.

Less than a quarter said they felt the economy could recover in 2022 at 23%, while just 5% think their economies could bounce back by the end of this year.

Nearly one in ten further expressed fears that their country's economy may never recover from the impact of the pandemic, with 8% sharing in that perspective.

A far more optimistic 1% of Europeans, however, said they believe their country's economy has already recovered, while 2% said they simply do not know what the economic future will hold.

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Objectives and Study Scope

This study has assimilated knowledge and insight from business and subject-matter experts, and from a broad spectrum of market initiatives. Building on this research, the objectives of this market research report is to provide actionable intelligence on opportunities alongside the market size of various segments, as well as fact-based information on key factors influencing the market- growth drivers, industry-specific challenges and other critical issues in terms of detailed analysis and impact.

The report in its entirety provides a comprehensive overview of the current global condition, as well as notable opportunities and challenges. The analysis reflects market size, latest trends, growth drivers, threats, opportunities, as well as key market segments. The study addresses market dynamics in several geographic segments along with market analysis for the current market environment and future scenario over the forecast period. The report also segments the market into various categories based on the product, end user, application, type, and region.
The report also studies various growth drivers and restraints impacting the  market, plus a comprehensive market and vendor landscape in addition to a SWOT analysis of the key players.  This analysis also examines the competitive landscape within each market. Market factors are assessed by examining barriers to entry and market opportunities. Strategies adopted by key players including recent developments, new product launches, merger and acquisitions, and other insightful updates are provided.

Research Process & Methodology

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We leverage extensive primary research, our contact database, knowledge of companies and industry relationships, patent and academic journal searches, and Institutes and University associate links to frame a strong visibility in the markets and technologies we cover.

We draw on available data sources and methods to profile developments. We use computerised data mining methods and analytical techniques, including cluster and regression modelling, to identify patterns from publicly available online information on enterprise web sites.
Historical, qualitative and quantitative information is obtained principally from confidential and proprietary sources, professional network, annual reports, investor relationship presentations, and expert interviews, about key factors, such as recent trends in industry performance and identify factors underlying those trends - drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges influencing the growth of the market, for both, the supply and demand sides.
In addition to our own desk research, various secondary sources, such as Hoovers, Dun & Bradstreet, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Statista, are referred to identify key players in the industry, supply chain and market size, percentage shares, splits, and breakdowns into segments and subsegments with respect to individual growth trends, prospects, and contribution to the total market.

Research Portfolio Sources:

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M&A and Risk Management | Regulation

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Forecast methodology

The future outlook “forecast” is based on a set of statistical methods such as regression analysis, industry specific drivers as well as analyst evaluations, as well as analysis of the trends that influence economic outcomes and business decision making.
The Global Economic Model is covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. We aim update our market forecast to include the latest market developments and trends.

Forecasts, Data modelling and indicator normalisation

Review of independent forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables by the following organizations provide a holistic overview of the range of alternative opinions:

  • Cambridge Econometrics (CE)

  • The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)

  • Experian Economics (EE)

  • Oxford Economics (OE)

As a result, the reported forecasts derive from different forecasters and may not represent the view of any one forecaster over the whole of the forecast period. These projections provide an indication of what is, in our view most likely to happen, not what it will definitely happen.

Short- and medium-term forecasts are based on a “demand-side” forecasting framework, under the assumption that supply adjusts to meet demand either directly through changes in output or through the depletion of inventories.
Long-term projections rely on a supply-side framework, in which output is determined by the availability of labour and capital equipment and the growth in productivity.
Long-term growth prospects, are impacted by factors including the workforce capabilities, the openness of the economy to trade, the legal framework, fiscal policy, the degree of government regulation.

Direct contribution to GDP
The method for calculating the direct contribution of an industry to GDP, is to measure its ‘gross value added’ (GVA); that is, to calculate the difference between the industry’s total pre­tax revenue and its total bought­in costs (costs excluding wages and salaries).

Forecasts of GDP growth: GDP = CN+IN+GS+NEX

GDP growth estimates take into account:

  • Consumption, expressed as a function of income, wealth, prices and interest rates;

  • Investment as a function of the return on capital and changes in capacity utilization; Government spending as a function of intervention initiatives and state of the economy;

  • Net exports as a function of global economic conditions.

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Market Quantification
All relevant markets are quantified utilizing revenue figures for the forecast period. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) within each segment is used to measure growth and to extrapolate data when figures are not publicly available.

Revenues

Our market segments reflect major categories and subcategories of the global market, followed by an analysis of statistical data covering national spending and international trade relations and patterns. Market values reflect revenues paid by the final customer / end user to vendors and service providers either directly or through distribution channels, excluding VAT. Local currencies are converted to USD using the yearly average exchange rates of local currencies to the USD for the respective year as provided by the IMF World Economic Outlook Database.

Industry Life Cycle Market Phase

Market phase is determined using factors in the Industry Life Cycle model. The adapted market phase definitions are as follows:

  • Nascent: New market need not yet determined; growth begins increasing toward end of cycle

  • Growth: Growth trajectory picks up; high growth rates

  • Mature: Typically fewer firms than growth phase, as dominant solutions continue to capture the majority of market share and market consolidation occurs, displaying lower growth rates that are typically on par with the general economy

  • Decline: Further market consolidation, rapidly declining growth rates

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The Global Economic Model
The Global Economic Model brings together macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts for quantifying the key relationships.

The model is a hybrid statistical model that uses macroeconomic variables and inter-industry linkages to forecast sectoral output. The model is used to forecast not just output, but prices, wages, employment and investment. The principal variables driving the industry model are the components of final demand, which directly or indirectly determine the demand facing each industry. However, other macroeconomic assumptions — in particular exchange rates, as well as world commodity prices — also enter into the equation, as well as other industry specific factors that have been or are expected to impact.

  • Vector Auto Regression (VAR) statistical models capturing the linear interdependencies among multiple time series, are best used for short-term forecasting, whereby shocks to demand will generate economic cycles that can be influenced by fiscal and monetary policy.

  • Dynamic-Stochastic Equilibrium (DSE) models replicate the behaviour of the economy by analyzing the interaction of economic variables, whereby output is determined by supply side factors, such as investment, demographics, labour participation and productivity.

  • Dynamic Econometric Error Correction (DEEC) modelling combines VAR and DSE models by estimating the speed at which a dependent variable returns to its equilibrium after a shock, as well as assessing the impact of a company, industry, new technology, regulation, or market change. DEEC modelling is best suited for forecasting.

Forecasts of GDP growth per capita based on these factors can then be combined with demographic projections to give forecasts for overall GDP growth.
Wherever possible, publicly available data from official sources are used for the latest available year. Qualitative indicators are normalised (on the basis of: Normalised x = (x - Min(x)) / (Max(x) - Min(x)) where Min(x) and Max(x) are, the lowest and highest values for any given indicator respectively) and then aggregated across categories to enable an overall comparison. The normalised value is then transformed into a positive number on a scale of 0 to 100. The weighting assigned to each indicator can be changed to reflect different assumptions about their relative importance.

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The principal explanatory variable in each industry’s output equation is the Total Demand variable, encompassing exogenous macroeconomic assumptions, consumer spending and investment, and intermediate demand for goods and services by sectors of the economy for use as inputs in the production of their own goods and services.

Elasticities
Elasticity measures the response of one economic variable to a change in another economic variable, whether the good or service is demanded as an input into a final product or whether it is the final product, and provides insight into the proportional impact of different economic actions and policy decisions.
Demand elasticities measure the change in the quantity demanded of a particular good or service as a result of changes to other economic variables, such as its own price, the price of competing or complementary goods and services, income levels, taxes.
Demand elasticities can be influenced by several factors. Each of these factors, along with the specific characteristics of the product, will interact to determine its overall responsiveness of demand to changes in prices and incomes.
The individual characteristics of a good or service will have an impact, but there are also a number of general factors that will typically affect the sensitivity of demand, such as the availability of substitutes, whereby the elasticity is typically higher the greater the number of available substitutes, as consumers can easily switch between different products.
The degree of necessity. Luxury products and habit forming ones, typically have a higher elasticity.
Proportion of the budget consumed by the item. Products that consume a large portion of the consumer’s budget tend to have greater elasticity.
Elasticities tend to be greater over the long run because consumers have more time to adjust their behaviour.
Finally, if the product or service is an input into a final product then the price elasticity will depend on the price elasticity of the final product, its cost share in the production costs, and the availability of substitutes for that good or service.

Prices
Prices are also forecast using an input-output framework. Input costs have two components; labour costs are driven by wages, while intermediate costs are computed as an input-output weighted aggregate of input sectors’ prices. Employment is a function of output and real sectoral wages, that are forecast as a function of whole economy growth in wages. Investment is forecast as a function of output and aggregate level business investment.

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