Big Bets | B2B Payments to top $ 35 Trillion
Dr. Evangelo Damigos; PhD | Head of Digital Futures Research Desk
- Digital Payments
- Competitive Differentiation
Publication | Update: Oct 2020
According to David Deans, Technology Media Telecom analyst, all enterprises need access to effective B2B (Business to Business) payment systems in order to compete effectively.
The payments market has been the target of disruption. Traditional commercial bank transfers are not fast enough to make B2B payments management a streamlined process.
The payments industry continues to expand and evolve, with digital payment vehicles and transaction volumes growing across the globe:
- Modernizing their organisations and infrastructure to support new service offerings and identify new revenue streams
- Investing in cloud computing and other digital technologies to more rapidly address evolving customer preferences and mitigate risk and regulatory obligations
- Engaging in targeted M&A to fill in adjacencies and add capabilities and talent to address challenging areas such as cross-border payments, an improved end-to-end payment experience, multi-payment integration, and business-to-business (B2B) payments
- Collaborating with financial technology (FinTech) players and other market entrants as strategies and playbooks for partnering continue to evolve
According to a Deloitte Payments trends 2020 perspectives paper, it anticipates that 2020 strategies will likely be about the formulation of “big bets.” That could take the shape of either going all-in on a targeted set of preferred partners and platforms or going broader in an attempt to service the ecosystem. It views five emerging trends as driving these strategies, presenting challenges, and creating opportunities in the 2020 payments ecosystem.
The report also expects public and private efforts to begin coalescing around the development of global industry standards, such as ISO 2022, to govern payments messaging, interoperability, interfaces, payment engines, and integration. Finally, there may be progress on developing stronger standards for assessing transaction riskiness, demonstrating traceability in a cross-border payment, and facilitating authentication across different forms of transactions.
B2B Payments Market Development
According to the worldwide market study by Juniper Research, the total value of B2B cross-border payments will reach $ 35 trillion in 2022. That's up from a COVID-related low of $ 27 trillion in 2020, representing 30 percent growth.
However, the long-lasting economic impact of the pandemic means that cross-border values will only exceed 2019 values by 2022, highlighting the effect that this major economic disruption will have on businesses around the world.
In the post-pandemic recovery phase, businesses will be more cost-conscious, meaning that cross-border payments vendors must offer compelling lower-cost solutions to their customers, or they will fail to recover lost transaction traffic.
The new market study identified that instant payments, services where funds settle in 10 seconds or less, will account for 9.3 percent of B2B transactions by volume in 2022 -- that's up from 6 percent in 2020.
Meanwhile, instant payments will only account for 6.3 percent of B2B transactions by value in the same year, illustrating the predominantly low value of these payments, due to low transaction limits.
Objectives and Study Scope
This study has assimilated knowledge and insight from business and subject-matter experts, and from a broad spectrum of market initiatives. Building on this research, the objectives of this market research report is to provide actionable intelligence on opportunities alongside the market size of various segments, as well as fact-based information on key factors influencing the market- growth drivers, industry-specific challenges and other critical issues in terms of detailed analysis and impact.
The report in its entirety provides a comprehensive overview of the current global condition, as well as notable opportunities and challenges.
The analysis reflects market size, latest trends, growth drivers, threats, opportunities, as well as key market segments. The study addresses market dynamics in several geographic segments along with market analysis for the current market environment and future scenario over the forecast period.
The report also segments the market into various categories based on the product, end user, application, type, and region.
The report also studies various growth drivers and restraints impacting the market, plus a comprehensive market and vendor landscape in addition to a SWOT analysis of the key players. This analysis also examines the competitive landscape within each market. Market factors are assessed by examining barriers to entry and market opportunities. Strategies adopted by key players including recent developments, new product launches, merger and acquisitions, and other insightful updates are provided.
Research Process & Methodology
We leverage extensive primary research, our contact database, knowledge of companies and industry relationships, patent and academic journal searches, and Institutes and University associate links to frame a strong visibility in the markets and technologies we cover.
We draw on available data sources and methods to profile developments. We use computerised data mining methods and analytical techniques, including cluster and regression modelling, to identify patterns from publicly available online information on enterprise web sites.
Historical, qualitative and quantitative information is obtained principally from confidential and proprietary sources, professional network, annual reports, investor relationship presentations, and expert interviews, about key factors, such as recent trends in industry performance and identify factors underlying those trends - drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges influencing the growth of the market, for both, the supply and demand sides.
In addition to our own desk research, various secondary sources, such as Hoovers, Dun & Bradstreet, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Statista, are referred to identify key players in the industry, supply chain and market size, percentage shares, splits, and breakdowns into segments and subsegments with respect to individual growth trends, prospects, and contribution to the total market.
Research Portfolio Sources:
Global Business Reviews, Research Papers, Commentary & Strategy Reports
M&A and Risk Management | Regulation
The future outlook “forecast” is based on a set of statistical methods such as regression analysis, industry specific drivers as well as analyst evaluations, as well as analysis of the trends that influence economic outcomes and business decision making.
The Global Economic Model is covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. We aim update our market forecast to include the latest market developments and trends.
Review of independent forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables by the following organizations provide a holistic overview of the range of alternative opinions:
As a result, the reported forecasts derive from different forecasters and may not represent the view of any one forecaster over the whole of the forecast period. These projections provide an indication of what is, in our view most likely to happen, not what it will definitely happen.
Short- and medium-term forecasts are based on a “demand-side” forecasting framework, under the assumption that supply adjusts to meet demand either directly through changes in output or through the depletion of inventories.
Long-term projections rely on a supply-side framework, in which output is determined by the availability of labour and capital equipment and the growth in productivity.
Long-term growth prospects, are impacted by factors including the workforce capabilities, the openness of the economy to trade, the legal framework, fiscal policy, the degree of government regulation.
Direct contribution to GDP
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Forecasts of GDP growth: GDP = CN+IN+GS+NEX
GDP growth estimates take into account:
All relevant markets are quantified utilizing revenue figures for the forecast period. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) within each segment is used to measure growth and to extrapolate data when figures are not publicly available.
Our market segments reflect major categories and subcategories of the global market, followed by an analysis of statistical data covering national spending and international trade relations and patterns. Market values reflect revenues paid by the final customer / end user to vendors and service providers either directly or through distribution channels, excluding VAT. Local currencies are converted to USD using the yearly average exchange rates of local currencies to the USD for the respective year as provided by the IMF World Economic Outlook Database.
Industry Life Cycle Market Phase
Market phase is determined using factors in the Industry Life Cycle model. The adapted market phase definitions are as follows:
The Global Economic Model
The Global Economic Model brings together macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts for quantifying the key relationships.
The model is a hybrid statistical model that uses macroeconomic variables and inter-industry linkages to forecast sectoral output. The model is used to forecast not just output, but prices, wages, employment and investment. The principal variables driving the industry model are the components of final demand, which directly or indirectly determine the demand facing each industry. However, other macroeconomic assumptions — in particular exchange rates, as well as world commodity prices — also enter into the equation, as well as other industry specific factors that have been or are expected to impact.
Forecasts of GDP growth per capita based on these factors can then be combined with demographic projections to give forecasts for overall GDP growth.
Wherever possible, publicly available data from ofﬁcial sources are used for the latest available year. Qualitative indicators are normalised (on the basis of: Normalised x = (x - Min(x)) / (Max(x) - Min(x)) where Min(x) and Max(x) are, the lowest and highest values for any given indicator respectively) and then aggregated across categories to enable an overall comparison. The normalised value is then transformed into a positive number on a scale of 0 to 100. The weighting assigned to each indicator can be changed to reﬂect different assumptions about their relative importance.
The principal explanatory variable in each industry’s output equation is the Total Demand variable, encompassing exogenous macroeconomic assumptions, consumer spending and investment, and intermediate demand for goods and services by sectors of the economy for use as inputs in the production of their own goods and services.
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The individual characteristics of a good or service will have an impact, but there are also a number of general factors that will typically affect the sensitivity of demand, such as the availability of substitutes, whereby the elasticity is typically higher the greater the number of available substitutes, as consumers can easily switch between different products.
The degree of necessity. Luxury products and habit forming ones, typically have a higher elasticity.
Proportion of the budget consumed by the item. Products that consume a large portion of the consumer’s budget tend to have greater elasticity.
Elasticities tend to be greater over the long run because consumers have more time to adjust their behaviour.
Finally, if the product or service is an input into a final product then the price elasticity will depend on the price elasticity of the final product, its cost share in the production costs, and the availability of substitutes for that good or service.
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