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Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) | Wireless Industry Disruption

Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) | Wireless Industry Disruption

Posted | Updated by Insights team:
Dr. Evangelo Damigos; PhD | Head of Digital Futures Research Desk
  • Connected Intelligence
  • Sustainable Growth and Tech Trends
  • Emerging Technologies


Publication | Update: Sep 2020
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Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) radio technology promises to increase spectrum sharing and thus help overcome the lack of available spectrum for new communication services. Currently, spectrum sharing is limited to simple approaches such as low-power unlicensed devices.

Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) is a policy which provides the capability to share the wireless channel to the unlicensed users (i.e. Secondary Users) along with licensed users (Primary Users) in an opportunistic manner, resulting in high spectrum utilization.

DSA is feasible because of advances in radio and networking technologies that make it possible to share spectrum dynamically in all possible dimensions—i.e., across frequencies, time, location, users, uses, and networks. Realizing the full potential of this shift to Dynamic Spectrum Sharing will require the co-evolution of wireless technologies, markets, and regulatory policies.

 

Potential Airbnb/Uber Style Disruption in the $ 1 Trillion Wireless Industry

According to Dalibor Vavruska, Citi’s Global Head of Digital Connectivity Strategy, innovative technologies like those used by Airbnb and Uber address some of the security and reliability challenges and in turn are able to disrupt the licensed businesses model, possibly making it obsolete. Interference, and hence security and reliability, in wireless communications depend on a range of factors including the power and density of transmitters, frequency bands, landscape, and the design of buildings. Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA), also known as Dynamic Spectrum Management (DSM), is a technology-empowered framework with the potential to address these complex factors. It allows multiple users to share a particular country-wide spectrum band, ideally in a secure and reliable way. This boosts the efficiency of spectrum utilization and opens wireless opportunities to larger number of players, possibly similar to Airbnb property owners and Uber drivers.

The Citi GPS report, “Is the wireless industry facing disruption?: South Africa, 5G, DSA and DIGITECCS,” that inspired debate about wireless, highlighted three key opportunities for wireless expansion: (1) uncovered areas, (2) areas with low-quality coverage, and (3) the use of small cells for industrial innovation.

Questions about whether spectrum and networks should be shared, and to what degree, remain relevant, especially since wireless growth is becoming scarcer and 5G/IoT is prompting the need for a policy re-think.

DSA is a technology-empowered framework designed to address these challenges by using innovative ways of sharing spectrum bands among multiple users, based on technologies such as software, game theory, machine learning, and artificial intelligence (AI).

 DSA may offer the following capabilities:

Dynamic spectrum re-allocation between users: Spectrum in specific locations and time points can be flexibly allocated using a tiered system where ‘spectrum holders’ are assigned priorities as opposed to exclusivity to use spectrum. Spectrum can be flexibly reallocated to a diverse set of entities, which avoid collision by knowing each other’s needs and flexibly managing channels (cognitive radio) and transmission power.

Use of imperfect (not entirely interference-clean) spectrum channels:

Software-based technologies exist, which could increase reliability and data throughput of imperfect channels by mitigating interference-related imperfections. These technologies are well known to the telecom industry, because they are widely used to prop up performance of copper-based fixed line channels, e.g., vectoring and G.fast. In theory, similar solutions could be deployed in wireless as well.

DSA can strengthen momentum behind regional, community, municipal, and corporate wireless networks, which have so far been operated on unlicensed WiFi spectrum. This may disrupt the wireless industry in the following ways:

Creation of a shared wireless economy: Technological progress has led to the emergence of shared economies in areas such as accommodation and transportation. By making spectrum more widely available, DSA could fragment the wireless market and possibly lead to similar opportunities. This could create shared economies with multiple providers of connectivity (accessing spectrum through DSA and connecting radio antennas, for example, to national fiber networks, similar to the use of public roads by Uber cars or water supply in Airbnb properties) and multiple users (e.g., people with devices, which allow connecting to such networks). The phenomenon of small localized networks is not new in telecoms; examples range from metropolitan WiFi to local fiber networks. DSA could, however, give these networks key attributes that they have been missing so far: spectrum, and subsequently compatibility with the mainstream wireless technology such as 4G and 5G.

Changes in regulation to limit availability of nationwide exclusive spectrum: DSA opportunities raise two crucial questions for the policymakers.

(a) Should low-frequency bands occupied by non-telecom users such as TV also be made available on a DSA-shared basis?

(b) Should frequency bands, particularly those above 3.5GHz where blanket nationwide coverage is impractical, be allocated on a DSA-priority basis instead of an exclusivity basis?

If the DSA technology proves reliable, it would be hard to argue against these suggestions. However, if these concepts are adopted, the wireless industry may over time lose its privilege to use crucial spectrum exclusively, i.e., it may no longer be able to prevent disruption by withholding access to spectrum from potential disruptors.

Creation of an alternative model for 5G small-cell deployments: Wireless operators usually see 5G/IoT small cells (operator-controlled low-powered mobile base stations) as their crucial growth opportunity. We see commercial small-cell opportunities first emerging in industrial innovation (e.g., coverage of production plants) and services (e.g., coverage of airports, hotels, entertainment parks, etc.)  Purpose-built networks accessing spectrum via DSA (as opposed to parallel competing networks using exclusive countrywide spectrum) would seem sensible in many cases. These networks may be built by industrial or service companies, tech companies, and small/medium enterprises as a 4G/5G-compatible upgrade of WiFi-based solutions. Even though owners of such networks may have to respect priority rights of other users to their spectrum, in practice this constraint may be manageable, because we are often talking about short-range indoor installations. Priority users may often not even have physical access to these indoor areas. In an extreme case, the wireless market may re-shape toward territorially fragmented, localized high-capacity networks with relatively high efficiency of spectrum utilization under DSA. Meanwhile, nationwide coverage, for example for voice, Internet access, and secured data services, may eventually lean toward a public service using nationwide spectrum.

Dilution of some of the unique skills of wireless operators: Good wireless operators usually stand out in two areas: (a) their ability to acquire spectrum so that the benefits of owning it outweigh its costs and related obligations as much as possible and (b) their ability to build networks, i.e., add sites at the right pace and to the right locations to maximize returns. DSA may bring more transparency and fragmentation to the spectrum markets and hence reduce potential advantages of specific operators. Moreover, it is possible that the tech industry may gain quality big-data on subscriber locations, geographies etc., which together with AI may allow it to develop ‘network planning skills’ and similar to Airbnb or Uber ‘manage’ networks with capacity provided by a large number of smaller entities.

 

 

 

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Forecast methodology

The future outlook “forecast” is based on a set of statistical methods such as regression analysis, industry specific drivers as well as analyst evaluations, as well as analysis of the trends that influence economic outcomes and business decision making.
The Global Economic Model is covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. We aim update our market forecast to include the latest market developments and trends.

Forecasts, Data modelling and indicator normalisation

Review of independent forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables by the following organizations provide a holistic overview of the range of alternative opinions:

  • Cambridge Econometrics (CE)

  • The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)

  • Experian Economics (EE)

  • Oxford Economics (OE)

As a result, the reported forecasts derive from different forecasters and may not represent the view of any one forecaster over the whole of the forecast period. These projections provide an indication of what is, in our view most likely to happen, not what it will definitely happen.

Short- and medium-term forecasts are based on a “demand-side” forecasting framework, under the assumption that supply adjusts to meet demand either directly through changes in output or through the depletion of inventories.
Long-term projections rely on a supply-side framework, in which output is determined by the availability of labour and capital equipment and the growth in productivity.
Long-term growth prospects, are impacted by factors including the workforce capabilities, the openness of the economy to trade, the legal framework, fiscal policy, the degree of government regulation.

Direct contribution to GDP
The method for calculating the direct contribution of an industry to GDP, is to measure its ‘gross value added’ (GVA); that is, to calculate the difference between the industry’s total pre­tax revenue and its total bought­in costs (costs excluding wages and salaries).

Forecasts of GDP growth: GDP = CN+IN+GS+NEX

GDP growth estimates take into account:

  • Consumption, expressed as a function of income, wealth, prices and interest rates;

  • Investment as a function of the return on capital and changes in capacity utilization; Government spending as a function of intervention initiatives and state of the economy;

  • Net exports as a function of global economic conditions.

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Market Quantification
All relevant markets are quantified utilizing revenue figures for the forecast period. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) within each segment is used to measure growth and to extrapolate data when figures are not publicly available.

Revenues

Our market segments reflect major categories and subcategories of the global market, followed by an analysis of statistical data covering national spending and international trade relations and patterns. Market values reflect revenues paid by the final customer / end user to vendors and service providers either directly or through distribution channels, excluding VAT. Local currencies are converted to USD using the yearly average exchange rates of local currencies to the USD for the respective year as provided by the IMF World Economic Outlook Database.

Industry Life Cycle Market Phase

Market phase is determined using factors in the Industry Life Cycle model. The adapted market phase definitions are as follows:

  • Nascent: New market need not yet determined; growth begins increasing toward end of cycle

  • Growth: Growth trajectory picks up; high growth rates

  • Mature: Typically fewer firms than growth phase, as dominant solutions continue to capture the majority of market share and market consolidation occurs, displaying lower growth rates that are typically on par with the general economy

  • Decline: Further market consolidation, rapidly declining growth rates

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The Global Economic Model
The Global Economic Model brings together macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts for quantifying the key relationships.

The model is a hybrid statistical model that uses macroeconomic variables and inter-industry linkages to forecast sectoral output. The model is used to forecast not just output, but prices, wages, employment and investment. The principal variables driving the industry model are the components of final demand, which directly or indirectly determine the demand facing each industry. However, other macroeconomic assumptions — in particular exchange rates, as well as world commodity prices — also enter into the equation, as well as other industry specific factors that have been or are expected to impact.

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Forecasts of GDP growth per capita based on these factors can then be combined with demographic projections to give forecasts for overall GDP growth.
Wherever possible, publicly available data from official sources are used for the latest available year. Qualitative indicators are normalised (on the basis of: Normalised x = (x - Min(x)) / (Max(x) - Min(x)) where Min(x) and Max(x) are, the lowest and highest values for any given indicator respectively) and then aggregated across categories to enable an overall comparison. The normalised value is then transformed into a positive number on a scale of 0 to 100. The weighting assigned to each indicator can be changed to reflect different assumptions about their relative importance.

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The principal explanatory variable in each industry’s output equation is the Total Demand variable, encompassing exogenous macroeconomic assumptions, consumer spending and investment, and intermediate demand for goods and services by sectors of the economy for use as inputs in the production of their own goods and services.

Elasticities
Elasticity measures the response of one economic variable to a change in another economic variable, whether the good or service is demanded as an input into a final product or whether it is the final product, and provides insight into the proportional impact of different economic actions and policy decisions.
Demand elasticities measure the change in the quantity demanded of a particular good or service as a result of changes to other economic variables, such as its own price, the price of competing or complementary goods and services, income levels, taxes.
Demand elasticities can be influenced by several factors. Each of these factors, along with the specific characteristics of the product, will interact to determine its overall responsiveness of demand to changes in prices and incomes.
The individual characteristics of a good or service will have an impact, but there are also a number of general factors that will typically affect the sensitivity of demand, such as the availability of substitutes, whereby the elasticity is typically higher the greater the number of available substitutes, as consumers can easily switch between different products.
The degree of necessity. Luxury products and habit forming ones, typically have a higher elasticity.
Proportion of the budget consumed by the item. Products that consume a large portion of the consumer’s budget tend to have greater elasticity.
Elasticities tend to be greater over the long run because consumers have more time to adjust their behaviour.
Finally, if the product or service is an input into a final product then the price elasticity will depend on the price elasticity of the final product, its cost share in the production costs, and the availability of substitutes for that good or service.

Prices
Prices are also forecast using an input-output framework. Input costs have two components; labour costs are driven by wages, while intermediate costs are computed as an input-output weighted aggregate of input sectors’ prices. Employment is a function of output and real sectoral wages, that are forecast as a function of whole economy growth in wages. Investment is forecast as a function of output and aggregate level business investment.

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