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Low-cost high-productivity space science from Japan

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Low-cost high-productivity space science from Japan

Posted | Updated by Insights team:

Publication | Update:

May 2022
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NAOJ Director General Saku Tsuneta provides an overview of Japan’s involvement in space science

Space science has advanced rapidly over the past century. With this advancement, the required investment has increased. But Japanese institutes have found ways to deliver cutting-edge space science at low cost through a strategy of innovation and collaboration.

This collaboration extends across national boarders and from ground-based facilities to space-based facilities. Ground-based observatories benefit from established infrastructure, a solid foundation for extremely large apertures, and easy access for decades of continuous upgrades. Space missions, in turn, can collect data without interference from Earth’s atmosphere.

Space science in Japan

Japan has two national research institutes dedicated to space science: the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).

NAOJ, the national center of astronomical research in Japan, primarily develops world-leading ground-based observing facilities and promotes the open use of these facilities among researchers throughout Japan as well as encouraging international cooperation. The three great observatories of NAOJ are the Subaru Telescope, ALMA, and TMT (to be constructed). NAOJ also coordinates collaboration with a number of smaller facilities.

JAXA supports the Japanese government’s overall aerospace development and utilisation. JAXA, therefore, can conduct both basic research and development, and utilisation. Within JAXA, the branch most involved in the study of stars and other planets is the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS).

The missions of NAOJ and JAXA are not mutually exclusive and they have collaborated on several projects. NOAJ astronomers have played a major role in JAXA’s solar physics satellite “HINODE” and more specialised roles in the asteroid explorers Hayabusa1 and 2. These collaborations have been more than just successful, entering extended missions after completing their objectives.

International collaboration for space science missions

Japanese space science programs engage in extensive international collaboration to leverage the best talent available both domestically and internationally.

Among JAXA’s upcoming space-science missions the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) includes participation by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA); the asteroid Phaethon flyby mission Destiny+ includes participation by the German aerospace center (Deutsches Zentrum furLuft- und Raumfahrt, DLR); and the Martian Moons Exploration (MMX) mission includes participation by NASA, ESA, DLR, and the French national centre for space studies (Centre National D’Etudes Spatiales, CNES).

Together, NAOJ and JAXA are working with international partners to develop missions like CLASP, SOLAR-C, and JASMINE. The CLASP suborbital experiments (See photo.) to observe the Sun were developed through collaboration including NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, the Institute of Astrophysics of the Canary Islands (IAC), and Institut D’Astrophysique Spatiale (IAS), and launched at the White Sands Missile Range in the U.S. SOLAR-C, the successor to HINODE, includes participation by NASA, ESA, DLR, CNES, and space agencies in the UK, Italy, and Switzerland.

JASMINE is a satellite mission to measure the distances and motions of stars through infrared observations. Unlike visible light, infrared light can penetrate the interstellar clouds around the Galactic Center and show us the region around the super massive black hole at the heart of the Milky Way Galaxy. JASMINE will be complementary to ESA’s Gaia Project, which observes stars over a wider area in visible light, and dialog and scientific exchange to maximise the return from both projects are ongoing.

Ground-space collaboration

One area of active collaboration between ground-based and space-based observations is survey missions, observing a wide area of the sky with multiple independent telescopes with different capabilities to build comprehensive, large-scale maps of the Universe, including information such as the dark matter distribution. NAOJ’s Subaru Telescope is well suited to survey observations, with its unique construction combining a wide field-of-view with a large light-gathering area and an ever-evolving suite of cutting-edge instruments. The Subaru Telescope has committed to wide imaging surveys complementary to the upcoming ESA Euclid mission and NASA Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. Euclid and Roman will both be active in the mid to late 2020s observing in infrared-red (IR) wavelengths. The Subaru Telescope’s visible/ IR survey programs cover different wavelength ranges than the space telescopes, complementing their data.

The Subaru Telescope has also observed future targets for probe missions to other bodies in the Solar System. In December 2020, the Subaru Telescope observed the asteroid 1998 KY26, the destination of Hayabusa2’s extended mission. Based on this data, JAXA was able to determine the asteroid’s accurate orbital parameters, vital information for reaching the asteroid. The Subaru Telescope searched for new targets for the extended mission of NASA’s New Horizons, and found over 70 previously unknown bodies, giving NASA their pick of targets.

The next step, astronomy from the Moon

Some of the faintest signals from space are completely washed out by the atmosphere and ionosphere of the Earth and the artificial radio waves produced by modern society. Observations to catch these faint signals cannot be conducted from Earth. Even near-Earth orbit is too radio-loud for some of the observations. But if we place our instruments on the Moon’s far side, the Moon itself acts as a natural shield, blocking artificial radio waves and providing an ideal, quiet environment for astronomy.

The JAXA SLIM (Smart Lander for Investigating Moon) mission seeks to demonstrate the technology needed for accurate lunar landings, as a basis for further lunar exploration. Scientists have been performing a feasibility study for a future SLIM-like mission to deploy radio antennas with a moon rover in the late 2020s on the rear side of the Moon to measure ultra-low frequency radio sources and the background from space. These observations would be impossible for ground-based or orbital observatories due to the reflection by the Earth’s ionosphere and artificial noise from the Earth.

Japan’s ambitions to push the limits of space science on a lean budget will continue to drive JAXA and NAOJ, together with domestic and international collaborations, to pursue novel space exploration ideas.

Please note: This is a commercial profile

© 2019. This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 license

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The future outlook “forecast” is based on a set of statistical methods such as regression analysis, industry specific drivers as well as analyst evaluations, as well as analysis of the trends that influence economic outcomes and business decision making.
The Global Economic Model is covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. We aim update our market forecast to include the latest market developments and trends.

Forecasts, Data modelling and indicator normalisation

Review of independent forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables by the following organizations provide a holistic overview of the range of alternative opinions:

  • Cambridge Econometrics (CE)

  • The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)

  • Experian Economics (EE)

  • Oxford Economics (OE)

As a result, the reported forecasts derive from different forecasters and may not represent the view of any one forecaster over the whole of the forecast period. These projections provide an indication of what is, in our view most likely to happen, not what it will definitely happen.

Short- and medium-term forecasts are based on a “demand-side” forecasting framework, under the assumption that supply adjusts to meet demand either directly through changes in output or through the depletion of inventories.
Long-term projections rely on a supply-side framework, in which output is determined by the availability of labour and capital equipment and the growth in productivity.
Long-term growth prospects, are impacted by factors including the workforce capabilities, the openness of the economy to trade, the legal framework, fiscal policy, the degree of government regulation.

Direct contribution to GDP
The method for calculating the direct contribution of an industry to GDP, is to measure its ‘gross value added’ (GVA); that is, to calculate the difference between the industry’s total pre­tax revenue and its total bought­in costs (costs excluding wages and salaries).

Forecasts of GDP growth: GDP = CN+IN+GS+NEX

GDP growth estimates take into account:

  • Consumption, expressed as a function of income, wealth, prices and interest rates;

  • Investment as a function of the return on capital and changes in capacity utilization; Government spending as a function of intervention initiatives and state of the economy;

  • Net exports as a function of global economic conditions.

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Market Quantification
All relevant markets are quantified utilizing revenue figures for the forecast period. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) within each segment is used to measure growth and to extrapolate data when figures are not publicly available.

Revenues

Our market segments reflect major categories and subcategories of the global market, followed by an analysis of statistical data covering national spending and international trade relations and patterns. Market values reflect revenues paid by the final customer / end user to vendors and service providers either directly or through distribution channels, excluding VAT. Local currencies are converted to USD using the yearly average exchange rates of local currencies to the USD for the respective year as provided by the IMF World Economic Outlook Database.

Industry Life Cycle Market Phase

Market phase is determined using factors in the Industry Life Cycle model. The adapted market phase definitions are as follows:

  • Nascent: New market need not yet determined; growth begins increasing toward end of cycle

  • Growth: Growth trajectory picks up; high growth rates

  • Mature: Typically fewer firms than growth phase, as dominant solutions continue to capture the majority of market share and market consolidation occurs, displaying lower growth rates that are typically on par with the general economy

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The Global Economic Model
The Global Economic Model brings together macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts for quantifying the key relationships.

The model is a hybrid statistical model that uses macroeconomic variables and inter-industry linkages to forecast sectoral output. The model is used to forecast not just output, but prices, wages, employment and investment. The principal variables driving the industry model are the components of final demand, which directly or indirectly determine the demand facing each industry. However, other macroeconomic assumptions — in particular exchange rates, as well as world commodity prices — also enter into the equation, as well as other industry specific factors that have been or are expected to impact.

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The principal explanatory variable in each industry’s output equation is the Total Demand variable, encompassing exogenous macroeconomic assumptions, consumer spending and investment, and intermediate demand for goods and services by sectors of the economy for use as inputs in the production of their own goods and services.

Elasticities
Elasticity measures the response of one economic variable to a change in another economic variable, whether the good or service is demanded as an input into a final product or whether it is the final product, and provides insight into the proportional impact of different economic actions and policy decisions.
Demand elasticities measure the change in the quantity demanded of a particular good or service as a result of changes to other economic variables, such as its own price, the price of competing or complementary goods and services, income levels, taxes.
Demand elasticities can be influenced by several factors. Each of these factors, along with the specific characteristics of the product, will interact to determine its overall responsiveness of demand to changes in prices and incomes.
The individual characteristics of a good or service will have an impact, but there are also a number of general factors that will typically affect the sensitivity of demand, such as the availability of substitutes, whereby the elasticity is typically higher the greater the number of available substitutes, as consumers can easily switch between different products.
The degree of necessity. Luxury products and habit forming ones, typically have a higher elasticity.
Proportion of the budget consumed by the item. Products that consume a large portion of the consumer’s budget tend to have greater elasticity.
Elasticities tend to be greater over the long run because consumers have more time to adjust their behaviour.
Finally, if the product or service is an input into a final product then the price elasticity will depend on the price elasticity of the final product, its cost share in the production costs, and the availability of substitutes for that good or service.

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Prices are also forecast using an input-output framework. Input costs have two components; labour costs are driven by wages, while intermediate costs are computed as an input-output weighted aggregate of input sectors’ prices. Employment is a function of output and real sectoral wages, that are forecast as a function of whole economy growth in wages. Investment is forecast as a function of output and aggregate level business investment.

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