...
...
How a COVID pass protest sparked a debate in Italy on its fascist past

...

How a COVID pass protest sparked a debate in Italy on its fascist past

Posted | Updated by Insights team:

Publication | Update:

Oct 2021
...

When protests in Rome against extending Italy's COVID pass to all workplaces turned violent, it reopened a dark chapter in the country's history.

As the demonstration spiralled out of control on October 9, a mob smashed up the headquarters of a trade union.

For some, it was a reminder of the 1920s and the birth of fascism, which saw Benito Mussolini gain power through a coup d’état and wage war on trade unions. This, coupled with the arrest of Roberto Fiore -- the leader of a small neo-fascist party -- as the protests turned violent, sparked a debate about whether fascism is on the ascendancy.

For others, however, such claims are an exaggerated conflation designed to distract from what they consider to be the real issues at hand - namely their concerns over Italy's COVID pass and its alleged infringement on their rights.

What is Italy's Green Pass and why is it controversial?

Italy's Green Pass was rolled out in August. It provides proof that someone has either been vaccinated against COVID-19, has recovered from the disease in the last six months or has tested negative for the disease in recent days.

It has been required for dining indoors, visiting museums and theatres and on long-distance trains.

But, from Friday (October 15), it's been mandatory in all workplaces, even for those who are self-employed.

Employees refusing to comply with the scheme risk fines of up to €1,500. Employers can also face financial penalties if they don't carry out the appropriate checks.

It means unvaccinated workers will have to cough up for regular COVID tests in order to access their workplace. Although such employees are protected from dismissal, they risk suspension and a pay freeze if they miss more than five days of work for Green Pass-related reasons.

With more than 80% of Italians over the age of 12 fully vaccinated, the Green Pass has been largely welcomed.

But it has also generated a significant degree of controversy. Politicians from the centre-right bloc (mainly formed of the populist Northern League and the nationalist Brothers of Italy) have accused it of undermining individual freedoms and being damaging to the economy.

Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni – whose party is currently edging towards the top spot in opinion polls – has said the Green Pass scheme was an “ineffective and economy-killing measure that damages [Italy’s] tourism".

Also concerned is the Italian General Confederation of Transport and Logistics, who warned goods deliveries could decrease by a third under the new Green Pass rules.

In recent weeks there have been a growing number of large protests against the extension of the COVID pass to workplaces. The most controversial was in Rome on October 9. It saw approximately 10,000 people gather in the city’s huge Piazza del Popolo. There was vandalism and violent scuffles after the crowd had dispersed.

IPA/ABACA/IPA/ABACA
Anti-vax protesters targeted the CGIL trade union headquarters in Rome, Italy, on October 09, 2021.IPA/ABACA/IPA/ABACA

Italy and fascism: an enduring influence?

Italy's fascist leader Benito Mussolini came to power in 1922 and later brought the country into World War II as an ally of Nazi Germany.

At the end of the war, Italy attempted to deal with this period of its history by banning the creation of new fascist parties. Then, in 1952, Christian Democratic Prime Minister Mario Scelba introduced a law banning apologists for Italy's fascist regime or its propaganda, with penalties including a fine between €206 and €516, or six months to two years of imprisonment.

In spite of such legislation, neo-fascist groups continue to exist in Italy, and numerous scholars and critics have accused various politicians, even on the moderate right, of revisionism when addressing the country’s fascist era.

Matteo Salvini, leader of the Northern League and former Deputy Prime Minister, has repeatedly undermined the significance of fascist vestiges in Italy, deeming fascism something “of the past” that “will never come back” and that has been “defeated by history”.

Among those demonstrating against the Green Pass scheme in Rome last Saturday were members of Forza Nuova, a minor neo-fascist party founded in 1997. Its leader, Roberto Fiore, was among those arrested amid the violence. Their presence sparked accusations from critics who claimed the Green Pass protests were infiltrated or spearheaded by the far-right.

'Not enough has been done'

Viewing the October 9 violence as a symptom of a ballooning far-right threat needing to be stamped out, numerous commentators and politicians have called for fascist movements like Forza Nuova to be shut down.

“What happened [on October 9] was an unprecedentedly troubling incident,” Gianfranco Pagliarulo, the president of the National Association of Italian Partisans (ANPI) told Euronews. “We haven’t seen such a violent attack since the end of the war. You’d have to go back to the 1920s to witness the squadristi [fascist militias] looting offices and committing crimes of a similar nature.”

The ANPI was founded by Italian resistance fighters in 1944, as the war was coming to a close. Over the course of nearly eight decades, the association has been at the forefront of anti-fascist activism in the country.

For Pagliarulo, Saturday’s violent scuffle has much deeper roots.

“Not enough has been done," he said. "Over the past thirty years, governments have underestimated the rising power of extreme right-wing movements, which have not only become significant political forces but have also influenced major parliamentary parties.”

Concurring with Pagliarulo’s sentiment is Simone Alliva, a progressive journalist and author, who writes about LGBT+ rights. Speaking to Euronews, he claimed the rising threat of the far-right is at the heart of Italian society.

“The neo-fascists haven’t infiltrated these anti-Green Pass protests, but have been a part of them from the start. You have neo-fascists who have found their shelter in large and moderate parties, like the League and Brothers of Italy.”

For Mattia Santori, head of the anti-populist Sardines – the grassroots movement which made headlines back in 2019 when it took a stand against Matteo Salvini – the only solution to such a rising far-right presence is to take clear action.

“There can be no half-measures on the clear-cut stance against these attacks on the stability and values of our country,” Santori told Euronews. “Democratic and anti-fascist forces must clamour together for the dissolution of Forza Nuova, of all the extreme right-wing groups which have made the apology of Fascism their bulwark.”

“Nazism takes hold in times of crisis,” Pagliarulo concluded. “And while we aren’t in the middle of war anymore, we’re living in a crisis caused by the post-2007 recession and COVID. In the midst of this malaise, Fascists have emerged triumphant.”

Credit: AP
Italy's neo-fascist Forza Nuova leader Roberto Fiore, second from left, arrives for a press conference, in Como, Italy, Saturday, Dec. 9, 2017Credit: AP

'Fascist violence a red herring'

For many, most prominently – albeit far from exclusively – on the political right, the power of neo-fascist forces in Italy has been overstated and represents a distraction from what they consider to be valid criticisms of the country’s Green Pass scheme.

Umberto La Morgia, a former councillor for the Northern League and now a member of the Brothers of Italy, condemned the violence but deemed its ideological nature to be irrelevant.

“While the troublemakers at the protest in Rome were openly neo-fascist, the scuffles that occurred in similar protests in other Italian cities were orchestrated by communist and anarchist groups,” La Morgia told Euronews – echoing a similar statement made by Giorgia Meloni. Indeed, anarchist supporters have been found at protests across Italian cities and were around half of the 57 arrested at a demonstration against the Green Pass in Milan recently.

La Morgia says the fascist violence is a red herring. The fact the Green Pass conflicts with "certain constitutional rights and creates an important precedent” is more worthy of attention.

“It’s certainly true that tiny neo-fascist and criminal groups are trying to exploit the Green Pass-related social discontent as a way to boost their media profile,” he added. “But I do not believe that fascism has any real influence in Italy today. Those groups have nothing to do with the institutional Italian right.”

La Morgia insisted the “institutional right” to which he belongs is void of any fascist links. However, he is currently on the electoral committee of Rachele Mussolini, the granddaughter of fascist dictator Benito Mussolini. Rachele once claimed to carry her last name “with pride”. In a blog post from earlier this month, La Morgia said voters did not pick Rachele “because of her surname… but in spite of it”. Nevertheless, critics have viewed her electoral success – ranking as Rome’s most popular municipal candidate – as symptomatic of the enduring appeal of fascist imagery and politics in Italy.

Within the movement opposing the Green Pass, many have openly distanced themselves from any fascist associations, and have even decried such links as media constructions intended to sow discord among the public.

Students Against the Green Pass (Studenti Contro Il Green Pass), a youth movement with over 20,000 followers on Facebook, is one such organisation. It resists any associations with far-right politics.

Gloria Mancini, a spokesperson of the group, told Euronews that the organisation “does not accept that the anti-Green Pass movement should be conflated with fascism”. She further asserted that any such associations are exaggerated fabrications of the press intended to “exacerbate tensions and to discredit a sacrosanct battle that we, as a student movement, have conducted in an entirely non-violent manner”.

Guido Cappelli, a Professor of Italian literature at Naples Eastern University and a vocal critic of the Green Pass scheme, went even further, telling Euronews that it was “prejudicial” to speak of a “significant neo-Fascist presence” at anti-Green Pass marches – a presence which he described as “a few hundred or so idiots”.

...
Framed Content Aggregator - Publisher | Sponsor
...
EURONEWS

Euronews reports live every day from across Europe and the world, delivering unrivalled coverage of European affairs, benefiting from a multicultural and multilingual newsroom, and correspondents across the continent with unmatched European expertise. https://www.euronews.com

SKU code : 408357C1-43D0-1D1C-2EFE-82C04D98A44C
Delivery Format:
HTML ...

Immediate Delivery
...Access Rights | Content Availability:
...

...

The content of this subscriber knowledge library area, the technology platform and tools are provided for information purposes only. No legal liability or other responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions, or any loss, damage or inconvenience caused as a result of reliance on such information, or statements on this site, or any site to which these pages connect, since we cannot control the content or take responsibility for pages maintained by external providers. Where we provide links to sites, we do not by doing so endorse any information or opinions appearing in them. This courseware includes resources copyrighted and open educational resources (OER) by multiple individuals and organizations. If someone else is given access to your account login information, that person has read, understands and accepts the Conditions of Use for this platform.

...

Objectives and Study Scope

This study has assimilated knowledge and insight from business and subject-matter experts, and from a broad spectrum of market initiatives. Building on this research, the objectives of this market research report is to provide actionable intelligence on opportunities alongside the market size of various segments, as well as fact-based information on key factors influencing the market- growth drivers, industry-specific challenges and other critical issues in terms of detailed analysis and impact.

The report in its entirety provides a comprehensive overview of the current global condition, as well as notable opportunities and challenges. The analysis reflects market size, latest trends, growth drivers, threats, opportunities, as well as key market segments. The study addresses market dynamics in several geographic segments along with market analysis for the current market environment and future scenario over the forecast period. The report also segments the market into various categories based on the product, end user, application, type, and region.
The report also studies various growth drivers and restraints impacting the  market, plus a comprehensive market and vendor landscape in addition to a SWOT analysis of the key players.  This analysis also examines the competitive landscape within each market. Market factors are assessed by examining barriers to entry and market opportunities. Strategies adopted by key players including recent developments, new product launches, merger and acquisitions, and other insightful updates are provided.

Research Process & Methodology

...

We leverage extensive primary research, our contact database, knowledge of companies and industry relationships, patent and academic journal searches, and Institutes and University associate links to frame a strong visibility in the markets and technologies we cover.

We draw on available data sources and methods to profile developments. We use computerised data mining methods and analytical techniques, including cluster and regression modelling, to identify patterns from publicly available online information on enterprise web sites.
Historical, qualitative and quantitative information is obtained principally from confidential and proprietary sources, professional network, annual reports, investor relationship presentations, and expert interviews, about key factors, such as recent trends in industry performance and identify factors underlying those trends - drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges influencing the growth of the market, for both, the supply and demand sides.
In addition to our own desk research, various secondary sources, such as Hoovers, Dun & Bradstreet, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Statista, are referred to identify key players in the industry, supply chain and market size, percentage shares, splits, and breakdowns into segments and subsegments with respect to individual growth trends, prospects, and contribution to the total market.

Research Portfolio Sources:

  • BBC Monitoring

  • BMI Research: Company Reports, Industry Reports, Special Reports, Industry Forecast Scenario

  • CIMB: Company Reports, Daily Market News, Economic Reports, Industry Reports, Strategy Reports, and Yearbooks

  • Dun & Bradstreet: Country Reports, Country Riskline Reports, Economic Indicators 5yr Forecast, and Industry Reports

  • EMIS: EMIS Insight and EMIS Dealwatch

  • Enerdata: Energy Data Set, Energy Market Report, Energy Prices, LNG Trade Data and World Refineries Data

  • Euromoney: China Law and Practice, Emerging Markets, International Tax Review, Latin Finance, Managing Intellectual Property, Petroleum Economist, Project Finance, and Euromoney Magazine

  • Euromonitor International: Industry Capsules, Local Company Profiles, Sector Capsules

  • Fitch Ratings: Criteria Reports, Outlook Report, Presale Report, Press Releases, Special Reports, Transition Default Study Report

  • FocusEconomics: Consensus Forecast Country Reports

  • Ken Research: Industry Reports, Regional Industry Reports and Global Industry Reports

  • MarketLine: Company Profiles and Industry Profiles

  • OECD: Economic Outlook, Economic Surveys, Energy Prices and Taxes, Main Economic Indicators, Main Science and Technology Indicators, National Accounts, Quarterly International Trade Statistics

  • Oxford Economics: Global Industry Forecasts, Country Economic Forecasts, Industry Forecast Data, and Monthly Industry Briefings

  • Progressive Digital Media: Industry Snapshots, News, Company Profiles, Energy Business Review

  • Project Syndicate: News Commentary

  • Technavio: Global Market Assessment Reports, Regional Market Assessment Reports, and Market Assessment Country Reports

  • The Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Summaries, Industry Briefings, Industry Reports and Industry Statistics

Global Business Reviews, Research Papers, Commentary & Strategy Reports

  • World Bank

  • World Trade Organization

  • The Financial Times

  • The Wall Street Journal

  • The Wall Street Transcript

  • Bloomberg

  • Standard & Poor’s Industry Surveys

  • Thomson Research

  • Thomson Street Events

  • Reuter 3000 Xtra

  • OneSource Business

  • Hoover’s

  • MGI

  • LSE

  • MIT

  • ERA

  • BBVA

  • IDC

  • IdExec

  • Moody’s

  • Factiva

  • Forrester Research

  • Computer Economics

  • Voice and Data

  • SIA / SSIR

  • Kiplinger Forecasts

  • Dialog PRO

  • LexisNexis

  • ISI Emerging Markets

  • McKinsey

  • Deloitte

  • Oliver Wyman

  • Faulkner Information Services

  • Accenture

  • Ipsos

  • Mintel

  • Statista

  • Bureau van Dijk’s Amadeus

  • EY

  • PwC

  • Berg Insight

  • ABI research

  • Pyramid Research

  • Gartner Group

  • Juniper Research

  • MarketsandMarkets

  • GSA

  • Frost and Sullivan Analysis

  • McKinsey Global Institute

  • European Mobile and Mobility Alliance

  • Open Europe

M&A and Risk Management | Regulation

  • Thomson Mergers & Acquisitions

  • MergerStat

  • Profound

  • DDAR

  • ISS Corporate Governance

  • BoardEx

  • Board Analyst

  • Securities Mosaic

  • Varonis

  • International Tax and Business Guides

  • CoreCompensation

  • CCH Research Network

...
Forecast methodology

The future outlook “forecast” is based on a set of statistical methods such as regression analysis, industry specific drivers as well as analyst evaluations, as well as analysis of the trends that influence economic outcomes and business decision making.
The Global Economic Model is covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. We aim update our market forecast to include the latest market developments and trends.

Forecasts, Data modelling and indicator normalisation

Review of independent forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables by the following organizations provide a holistic overview of the range of alternative opinions:

  • Cambridge Econometrics (CE)

  • The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)

  • Experian Economics (EE)

  • Oxford Economics (OE)

As a result, the reported forecasts derive from different forecasters and may not represent the view of any one forecaster over the whole of the forecast period. These projections provide an indication of what is, in our view most likely to happen, not what it will definitely happen.

Short- and medium-term forecasts are based on a “demand-side” forecasting framework, under the assumption that supply adjusts to meet demand either directly through changes in output or through the depletion of inventories.
Long-term projections rely on a supply-side framework, in which output is determined by the availability of labour and capital equipment and the growth in productivity.
Long-term growth prospects, are impacted by factors including the workforce capabilities, the openness of the economy to trade, the legal framework, fiscal policy, the degree of government regulation.

Direct contribution to GDP
The method for calculating the direct contribution of an industry to GDP, is to measure its ‘gross value added’ (GVA); that is, to calculate the difference between the industry’s total pre­tax revenue and its total bought­in costs (costs excluding wages and salaries).

Forecasts of GDP growth: GDP = CN+IN+GS+NEX

GDP growth estimates take into account:

  • Consumption, expressed as a function of income, wealth, prices and interest rates;

  • Investment as a function of the return on capital and changes in capacity utilization; Government spending as a function of intervention initiatives and state of the economy;

  • Net exports as a function of global economic conditions.

CLICK BELOW TO LEARN MORE
...

Market Quantification
All relevant markets are quantified utilizing revenue figures for the forecast period. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) within each segment is used to measure growth and to extrapolate data when figures are not publicly available.

Revenues

Our market segments reflect major categories and subcategories of the global market, followed by an analysis of statistical data covering national spending and international trade relations and patterns. Market values reflect revenues paid by the final customer / end user to vendors and service providers either directly or through distribution channels, excluding VAT. Local currencies are converted to USD using the yearly average exchange rates of local currencies to the USD for the respective year as provided by the IMF World Economic Outlook Database.

Industry Life Cycle Market Phase

Market phase is determined using factors in the Industry Life Cycle model. The adapted market phase definitions are as follows:

  • Nascent: New market need not yet determined; growth begins increasing toward end of cycle

  • Growth: Growth trajectory picks up; high growth rates

  • Mature: Typically fewer firms than growth phase, as dominant solutions continue to capture the majority of market share and market consolidation occurs, displaying lower growth rates that are typically on par with the general economy

  • Decline: Further market consolidation, rapidly declining growth rates

...

The Global Economic Model
The Global Economic Model brings together macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts for quantifying the key relationships.

The model is a hybrid statistical model that uses macroeconomic variables and inter-industry linkages to forecast sectoral output. The model is used to forecast not just output, but prices, wages, employment and investment. The principal variables driving the industry model are the components of final demand, which directly or indirectly determine the demand facing each industry. However, other macroeconomic assumptions — in particular exchange rates, as well as world commodity prices — also enter into the equation, as well as other industry specific factors that have been or are expected to impact.

  • Vector Auto Regression (VAR) statistical models capturing the linear interdependencies among multiple time series, are best used for short-term forecasting, whereby shocks to demand will generate economic cycles that can be influenced by fiscal and monetary policy.

  • Dynamic-Stochastic Equilibrium (DSE) models replicate the behaviour of the economy by analyzing the interaction of economic variables, whereby output is determined by supply side factors, such as investment, demographics, labour participation and productivity.

  • Dynamic Econometric Error Correction (DEEC) modelling combines VAR and DSE models by estimating the speed at which a dependent variable returns to its equilibrium after a shock, as well as assessing the impact of a company, industry, new technology, regulation, or market change. DEEC modelling is best suited for forecasting.

Forecasts of GDP growth per capita based on these factors can then be combined with demographic projections to give forecasts for overall GDP growth.
Wherever possible, publicly available data from official sources are used for the latest available year. Qualitative indicators are normalised (on the basis of: Normalised x = (x - Min(x)) / (Max(x) - Min(x)) where Min(x) and Max(x) are, the lowest and highest values for any given indicator respectively) and then aggregated across categories to enable an overall comparison. The normalised value is then transformed into a positive number on a scale of 0 to 100. The weighting assigned to each indicator can be changed to reflect different assumptions about their relative importance.

CLICK BELOW TO LEARN MORE
...

The principal explanatory variable in each industry’s output equation is the Total Demand variable, encompassing exogenous macroeconomic assumptions, consumer spending and investment, and intermediate demand for goods and services by sectors of the economy for use as inputs in the production of their own goods and services.

Elasticities
Elasticity measures the response of one economic variable to a change in another economic variable, whether the good or service is demanded as an input into a final product or whether it is the final product, and provides insight into the proportional impact of different economic actions and policy decisions.
Demand elasticities measure the change in the quantity demanded of a particular good or service as a result of changes to other economic variables, such as its own price, the price of competing or complementary goods and services, income levels, taxes.
Demand elasticities can be influenced by several factors. Each of these factors, along with the specific characteristics of the product, will interact to determine its overall responsiveness of demand to changes in prices and incomes.
The individual characteristics of a good or service will have an impact, but there are also a number of general factors that will typically affect the sensitivity of demand, such as the availability of substitutes, whereby the elasticity is typically higher the greater the number of available substitutes, as consumers can easily switch between different products.
The degree of necessity. Luxury products and habit forming ones, typically have a higher elasticity.
Proportion of the budget consumed by the item. Products that consume a large portion of the consumer’s budget tend to have greater elasticity.
Elasticities tend to be greater over the long run because consumers have more time to adjust their behaviour.
Finally, if the product or service is an input into a final product then the price elasticity will depend on the price elasticity of the final product, its cost share in the production costs, and the availability of substitutes for that good or service.

Prices
Prices are also forecast using an input-output framework. Input costs have two components; labour costs are driven by wages, while intermediate costs are computed as an input-output weighted aggregate of input sectors’ prices. Employment is a function of output and real sectoral wages, that are forecast as a function of whole economy growth in wages. Investment is forecast as a function of output and aggregate level business investment.

CLICK BELOW TO LEARN MORE
...